Berdasarkan hasil survey dan analisa beberapa para ahli bahwa Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada 2009 sebesar 4,9 persen. Angka tersebut lebih optimistis ketimbang perkiraan Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) yang sekira 4,5 persen. Economist Intelligence Unit (EUI) memperkirakan ekonomi Indonesia hanya tumbuh sebesar 3,7% pada 2009. Kejadian ini lantaran pengaruh krisis keuangan global. Menurut Justin Wood, Director Corporate Network Economist Intelligence Unit (EUI), menyatakan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diprediksi turun menjadi 3,7% pada 2009. Hal ini akibat krisis keuangan global. Bank Indonesia (BI) memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia 2009 dapat melebihi target 6,2 persen apabila tidak ada kejutan signifikan dan Indonesia dapat mengembangkan diversifikasi produk ekspor. Asumsi pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 6,2 persen di tahun 2009 cukup realistis untuk dicapai bahkan dapat lebih tinggi," kata Gubernur BI, Boediono dalam rapat kerja Panitia Anggaran DPR di Jakarta, Rabu. Menurut Boediono, sumber pertumbuhan diharapkan dari permintaan domestik baik dari sisi konsumsi maupun investasi. Peningkatan konsumsi masyarakat dimungkinkan bersamaan dengan menurunnga laju inflasi, dan dengan memperhitungkan multiplier effect dari meningkatnya aktivitas ekonomi masyarakat selama persiapan pemilu dan meningkatnya gaji PNS/TNI/Polri.
According to the resource data:
Despite a slowing global economy, Indonesia’s economic growth accelerated to a ten-year high of 6.3 percent in 2007. This growth rate was sufficient to reduce poverty from 17.8 to 16.6 percent based on the Government’s poverty line and reversed the recent trend towards jobless growth, with unemployment falling from 10.3 to 9.1 percent. The drivers of growth shifted over the course of the year. During the first half, the economy investment and consumer demand. High commodity prices continued to play an important role, with coal and palm oil exports growing rapidly. Inflation ended the year at the upper end of the government’s inflation target, at 6.6 percent, but has since risen further to 7.4 percent on rising food prices. The Government budget deficit was 1.3 percent of GDP, while the debt-to-GDP ratio continued to decline rapidly, falling to below 35 percent by the end of 2007 (down from 80 percent in 2000). The nominal exchange rate weakened in 2007, but the rupiah remained within the Rp 9,000 to Rp 9,500 range and strengthened again in early 2008. Global financial turmoil is beginning to have an effect. The commodity heavy Indonesian stock market enjoyed one of the world’s best performances in 2007, during which it grew by 52 percent, and continued to perform well until March 2008 when — along with global financial markets — it saw a significant correction. Similarly, despite an upgrade in Fitch’s sovereign long-term foreign debt rating for Indonesia to BB (speculative grade) in February 2008, the financial turmoil raised international risk premiums (up from a low of 130 bps mid-year 2007 to over 300 in 2008), and increased domestic interest rates for Government borrowing (from well under 9 percent mid-year to well over 10 percent in 2008 for a 10-year bond). High commodity prices make the state of the economy in early 2008 difficult to read. On the one hand high prices in energy, mining and agriculture are positive for the
Indonesian economy as a whole. For example, net oil and gas exports were estimated to be US$6.6 billion in 2007, while exports of coal, copper and CPO were US$6,7, US$7.3 and US$7.4 billion, respectively. All are growing at double digit rates. These commodities contributed to a current account surplus of 2.6 percent in 2007. But on the other hand, high commodity prices also have downsides. Most immediately, high agricultural commodity prices are feeding through into domestic food prices with food inflation year-on-year in February 2008 running at 10.4 percent, far higher than overall inflation at 7.4 percent. These higher food prices affect the poor, although the rice price, the largest single item in the consumption basket of poor, was virtually constant over the past year. (sources World Bank data)
According to the resource data:
Despite a slowing global economy, Indonesia’s economic growth accelerated to a ten-year high of 6.3 percent in 2007. This growth rate was sufficient to reduce poverty from 17.8 to 16.6 percent based on the Government’s poverty line and reversed the recent trend towards jobless growth, with unemployment falling from 10.3 to 9.1 percent. The drivers of growth shifted over the course of the year. During the first half, the economy investment and consumer demand. High commodity prices continued to play an important role, with coal and palm oil exports growing rapidly. Inflation ended the year at the upper end of the government’s inflation target, at 6.6 percent, but has since risen further to 7.4 percent on rising food prices. The Government budget deficit was 1.3 percent of GDP, while the debt-to-GDP ratio continued to decline rapidly, falling to below 35 percent by the end of 2007 (down from 80 percent in 2000). The nominal exchange rate weakened in 2007, but the rupiah remained within the Rp 9,000 to Rp 9,500 range and strengthened again in early 2008. Global financial turmoil is beginning to have an effect. The commodity heavy Indonesian stock market enjoyed one of the world’s best performances in 2007, during which it grew by 52 percent, and continued to perform well until March 2008 when — along with global financial markets — it saw a significant correction. Similarly, despite an upgrade in Fitch’s sovereign long-term foreign debt rating for Indonesia to BB (speculative grade) in February 2008, the financial turmoil raised international risk premiums (up from a low of 130 bps mid-year 2007 to over 300 in 2008), and increased domestic interest rates for Government borrowing (from well under 9 percent mid-year to well over 10 percent in 2008 for a 10-year bond). High commodity prices make the state of the economy in early 2008 difficult to read. On the one hand high prices in energy, mining and agriculture are positive for the
Indonesian economy as a whole. For example, net oil and gas exports were estimated to be US$6.6 billion in 2007, while exports of coal, copper and CPO were US$6,7, US$7.3 and US$7.4 billion, respectively. All are growing at double digit rates. These commodities contributed to a current account surplus of 2.6 percent in 2007. But on the other hand, high commodity prices also have downsides. Most immediately, high agricultural commodity prices are feeding through into domestic food prices with food inflation year-on-year in February 2008 running at 10.4 percent, far higher than overall inflation at 7.4 percent. These higher food prices affect the poor, although the rice price, the largest single item in the consumption basket of poor, was virtually constant over the past year. (sources World Bank data)
